Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.884003 15.737292 18.912536 22.685319 27.022254 31.827981 37.531340
2025-12-21 8.230787 11.703398 16.014400 21.660822 28.755479 37.266159 48.129435
2025-12-28 6.241562 10.009157 15.095695 22.249112 31.813352 43.913973 60.106182
2026-01-04 4.841036 8.659551 14.211964 22.507547 34.179831 49.588744 70.980129
2026-01-11 3.886444 7.692220 13.609804 22.930354 36.625016 55.351240 82.135537
2026-01-18 3.219271 7.003288 13.258220 23.581451 39.326890 61.507974 94.031857
2026-01-25 2.510707 6.058968 12.321701 23.172878 40.364252 65.312307 102.797716
2026-02-01 2.062634 5.477222 11.870320 23.428557 42.344637 70.489486 113.643410
2026-02-08 1.616985 4.774846 11.077482 22.994280 43.161778 73.938906 122.097216
2026-02-15 1.240110 4.104602 10.216896 22.312043 43.475003 76.582496 129.414729
2026-02-22 1.062240 3.850267 10.116148 22.949593 45.966796 82.635116 141.988387
2026-03-01 0.841442 3.410939 9.556704 22.662326 46.846925 86.179116 150.873367
2026-03-08 0.683327 3.105018 9.266313 22.927553 48.828493 91.775283 163.474077
2026-03-15 0.482067 2.572918 8.358978 21.866527 48.388367 93.464286 170.145267
2026-03-22 0.400522 2.400808 8.269852 22.457255 50.968811 100.216648 185.022364
2026-03-29 0.321078 2.192161 8.042461 22.717446 52.933177 106.004108 198.542641
2026-04-05 0.261827 2.030253 7.902174 23.143317 55.224942 112.426998 213.288814
2026-04-12 0.219066 1.915820 7.868411 23.799121 57.992327 119.767170 229.754646
2026-04-19 0.160654 1.672940 7.401973 23.387597 58.608351 123.362351 240.140495
2026-04-26 0.127068 1.537130 7.227320 23.645124 60.573504 129.401671 254.767502
2026-05-03 0.090661 1.338645 6.795658 23.207706 61.065923 132.802190 265.032735
2026-05-10 0.060930 1.139105 6.296004 22.520509 60.967032 135.098747 273.462037
2026-05-17 0.049903 1.083598 6.302290 23.162695 63.744846 142.782303 291.358275